Trading Discussion Hotforex.com - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM]

Date: 6th October 2023.

Market Update – October 6- Wait and see: NFP ahead.

It has been a quiet day in the markets with subdued volumes and small changes: in America US30 ticked down 0.03% while both US500 & US100 lost around 0.1% and volumes have been 15% lower than the 30-day average. But European indices and other asset calls such as metals also showed a lot of indecision, drawing what in candlestick analysis is called a Doji. The situation was somewhat different for the USD and Oil, which fell, in the case of the latter strongly.

The market awaits the September NFP data today after the picture that has emerged so far this week from the labour data has been mixed: we had a strong JOLTS report while ADP payrolls disappointed; yesterday’s Claims varied very little leaving room for indecision. Investors are worried about the possibility of a very positive NFP which could put new pressure on bonds and equities: yesterday the 10Y weakened to 4.73% but there are some market watchers – including bond king Bill Gross and Jamie Dimon – who see the possibility of quite higher levels in the future. Anyway, back to NFP, the average expectations are for +170k new jobs created, down from +187k in August and estimates range from +145k to +240k with the big US banks (Citi, BOFA) skewed to the upside.

NFP Readings

A note on the various speeches the central bankers are giving these days: yesterday both NY Fed’s Davy and ECB’s Villeroy empathized that the current monetary levels are appropriate, and expectations are correctly pricing future 2023 moves (no more hikes). Finally, Oil keeps falling and that is good news: Russia is lifting its Diesel exports ban but Curve is still in backwardation.

*FX – USDIndex +0.17% @ 106.26; USDJPY < 149, EURUSD -0.11% @ 1.0542, Cable -0.15% @ 1.2174. The once mighty MXN peso is falling hard vs USD, this morning +0.20% and +7.49% from 20/09. USDZAR flat not far from 2023 highs 19.51.
*Stocks – Equity futures are slightly negative this morning, US500 -0.1%, Europe is mostly flat with FRA40 outperforming +0.05% at 7020.
*Commodities – USOil +0.05% at 82.58$ pauses its drop close to a mild support level.
*Metals – Gold flat @ $1820.78, XAGUSD -0.20 @ $20.92, Palladium -0.67% and Copper $3.56 are still weak and below their recent floors.

Today: highlights include German Industrial Orders, US NFP, Labor Force Participation and Unemployment rate, Canadian Employment, Fed’s Waller.

Interesting Mover: USDMXN is up 7.49% since 20/09 lows, shows higher highs and trades above 50-200 MAs. 18.40 – 18.55 is a mild resistance area, RSI14 marks 72.24.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Marco Turatti
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 9th October 2023.

Market Update – October 09 – “Long and Difficult war”.

Rising geopolitical tensions fueled a rise in risk aversion at the start of the week. Oil prices spiked amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Dollar picked up haven demand. The surprise Hamas attack on Israel boosted Gold and US currency. The USDIndex is trading at 106.12. USOil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday amid concerns that Hamas’s attack on Israel will increase tensions across the Middle East and affect output from leading producers. The White House confirmed deaths of ‘several’ US citizens in Hamas attacks.

Germany: The industrial production corrected -0.2% m/m in August. If oil prices rise further, the risks to growth will pick up, also because a fresh pick-up in inflation will weigh on consumer demand and complicate the situation for the ECB.

Japan and Hong Kong were closed for holidays. In the US only equity markets are open today, with bond markets and Fed closed for Columbus Day. Chinese stocks declined on Monday morning, as markets returned from a week-long holiday that prompted disappointing levels of spending and travel.

US NFP: Nonfarm payrolls blew past estimates, surging 336k in September, with a net 119k upward revision to the prior two months. That put a November Fed rate hike back on the table and the markets responded as would be expected with Treasury rates surging, the USDIndex popping, and stocks sagging. But other parts of the report were more mixed which helped alleviate Fed fears while dip buyers, short covering, and technical buying ahead of the long weekend helped trim bond losses.

*USDIndex edged up to 106.13 from 105.82 while the Yen steadied at 149 lows. The EURUSD slide back to 1.0540 lows indicating a potential resumption of the long term downtrend while Cable settled at 1.2190. The Australian Dollar, seen as a proxy for risk appetite, slid to 0.6347, while the Kiwi edged lower to 0.5968.
*Stocks: The CSI300 corrected -0.2% as mainland China markets returned from the Golden Week holiday. The ASX managed to nudge 0.2% higher. GER40 and UK100 are in the red, as are US futures.
*Oil: USOil and UKOil gapped up to 85.95 and 87.81 respectively a day after Israel’s PM, Benjamin Netanyahu, warned of a “long and difficult war”.
*Gold at $1855.50, as traders flocked to safer assets.

Interesting Mover: USOil and UKOil both retest 38.2% Fib. from September’s downleg, with USOil posting a death cross in the 4-hour chart.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 10th October 2023.

Market Update – October 10.

Stock markets have stabilised and mostly moved higher overnight, after a largely stronger close on Wall Street. Markets continue to assess the impact of the Israel-Hamas war, but the JPN225 rallied 2.4% on its return from the extended holiday weekend. General uncertainties and fears of an escalation of the conflict weighed on sentiment but strength in defensive shares helped support. European futures are higher, with indexes set to pare yesterday’s losses. US futures are narrowly mixed. Treasuries rallied in catch up trade and the US 10-year rate has corrected -14.6 bp to 4.66%. Treasuries jumped and shares advanced after comments by Federal Reserve officials fueled speculation the US central bank may stand pat until year-end.

Oil prices as well as Gold benefited from a spike in risk aversion prompted by the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Gas prices also spiked as investors weigh the risk of widening geopolitical tensions.

*USDIndex has lifted to 105.95, after correcting on dovish leaning Fed comments yesterday. The USDJPY recovered to 148.92 from 148.16 lows.
*China: The largest private real estate developer, Country Garden, said it might not be able to meet all of its offshore payment obligations when due or within the relevant grace periods. Meanwhile, Kaisa Group said creditors would get less than 5% of their money back if it is forced into liquidation
*Stocks: JPN225 rallied 2.4%, while Hang Seng and ASX also moved higher.
*Oil: USOil have come down and it is currently trading at $84.17 per barrel.
*Gold ended at $1861, the highest since late September, from a low of $1844.25.

Today: BOE releases minutes of financial policy meeting & ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in session at IMF/World Bank meeting.

Interesting Mover: AUDUSD has breached the 61.8% fib. resistance line, indicating a potential move to 0.6471 if there is a confirmation of a breakout. Currently it`s in a correction mode.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 11th October 2023.

Market Update – Asia stocks hit 2-week high as Fed talk turns dovish.

Stock markets moved higher overnight, as jitters over the Israel-Hamas war continued to ease and traders trimmed expectations for further rate hikes in the US. There were also reports of further and more comprehensive stimulus measures for China, although while the Hang Seng rallied, the CSI 300 managed only fractional gains. European futures are in the red, after a broad rally yesterday. US futures are narrowly mixed.

Germany: HICP is still nowhere near the 2% target and with oil prices already backing up again, and wage growth still high, inflation is likely to continue to overshoot target for the foreseeable future.

*USDIndex: At 105.95, after correcting on dovish leaning Fed comments yesterday. The USDJPY recovered to 148.92 from 148.16 lows.
*Stocks: Treasury yields continued to drop and Wall Street extended recent gains amid rising expectations the FOMC is done. A haven bid has helped support Treasuries too. Wall Street climbed with the US100 rising 0.58% while the US500 advanced 0.52%. The US30 improved 0.4%. Gains were broad-based.
*Oil prices have continued to nudge down from the high of $87.24 per barrel seen early on Monday as markets continue to weigh the impact of Hamas’ attack on Israel over the weekend. USOIL is currently at $84.50, UKOIL at $87 per barrel. The direct impact may be limited, but there remains concern of a widening of the conflict and escalating tensions across the Middle East. If evidence of direct involvement from Iran is found, US sanctions on Teheran could also be tightened. Iran has raised production to a five-year high, but most oil is being shipped to China. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Venezuela and the US have made progress in talks that could provide sanctions relief to Caracas by allowing at least one additional foreign oil firm to take Venezuelan crude oil – under certain restrictions.
*Gold gained more than 2% yesterday and another 0.39% so far today, at $1868 as haven flows spiked.

Today: US PPI & FOMC Minutes.

Interesting Mover: COCOA up by 1.25% to 3473 retesting the upper line of 12-day channel.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 12th October 2023.

Market Update – October 12 – The key US Inflation.

Stock markets moved higher across Asia, with the Hang Seng outperforming again as tech stocks strengthen. China stimulus hopes are also helping, and the CSI300 lifted 0.9%. The JPN225 bounced 1.8% after a stronger close on Wall Street yesterday. Last night, FOMC minutes were largely in line with expectations and what came out of the September policy meeting and dot plot. Expectations the FOMC and likely the ECB and BoE were at peak rates continued to keep a bid in bonds. Most Treasury yields richened for a fourth day out of the last five as haven demand and dovish Fed expectations underpinned. The long end outperformed in a curve flattener after a hotter than expected PPI report weighed on the front end. Bunds are outperforming in early trade and Eurozone spreads are narrowing. The short end continues to underperform, but 2-year rates are also down in Germany and the US.

US CPI Forecast: It is expected to show gains of 0.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core after respective increases of 0.6% and 0.3%. CPI gasoline prices look poised to pop 1.4% in September. However, we expect dissipating upward pressure on core prices into 2024 as disruptions from global supply chain bottlenecks and the war in Ukraine subside. As-expected September CPI figures would see the y/y headline decelerate to 3.5% from 3.7% in August, and down from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June ’22. We expect the core y/y gain to slow to 4.1% from 4.3%, and versus a 40-year high of 6.6% in September. Though still well above the 2% target, the further signs of slowing could be sufficient for all but the most hawkish on the Committee, to favor no change in rates next month, especially given the tightening in financial conditions through early October.

*USDIndex eased further on the softer Fed view, but ranged narrowly between 105.80 and 105.20.
*UK: GDP rose 0.2% m/m in August, while the July reading was revised down to -0.6% m/m from -0.5% m/m reported initially. The visible trade deficit widened and apart from the rebound in services, the report still signals a weakening economy. If latest surveys are anything to go by, September will look worse, as the bounce in services doesn’t seem to have lasted long. The September Services PMI was firmly in contraction territory, with no sign of a quick recovery. The outlook then is not great.
*Stocks: Wall Street caught a bid into the close and finished in the green after a choppy session as investors gauged the potential spread of hostilities from the Israel-Hamas war. The US100 advanced 0.71%, while the US500 and US30 were up 0.43% and 0.19%, respectively. Defensive-related sectors in the US500 outperformed.
*USOil prices down for the third day in a row, with key resistance at $83.

Today: US Inflation & Jobless claims.

Interesting Mover: Gold broke $1880 (20 DMA & 50% Fib.) as markets scale back US rate hike expectations and the USD corrects. Haven demand amid raised geopolitical risk in the Middle East also continues to underpin demand for the precious metal.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[Sankarsai]

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[HFM]

Date: 13th October 2023.

Market Update – October 13 – OIl & Gold rise, USD falls.

Stock markets sold off across Asia, after a weaker close on Wall Street. Rate hike concerns picked up again in the wake of the hotter than expected US inflation print yesterday and still tight jobless claims numbers and put stocks on the back foot. The reports saw the market price back in risk of another Fed rate hike this year of about 38%, though the probability was briefly as high as 50-50. The data, the threat of another Fed hike, and geopolitical risks soured investor sentiment.

European futures are also in the red, while US futures show signs of stabilisation. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -3.3 bp at 4.664%, as the curve shifts lower. In the Eurozone, the short end is outperforming, but the 10-year Bund yield is also down -1.0 bp at 2.71%, while spreads are coming in.

*USDIndex has moved off the highs seen in the wake of yesterday’s data and is at 106.20. USDJPY is hovering below 150 as the yield gap with the US widened on hotter-than-expected inflation data.
*Yields: Yields cheapened further on the back of the poorly subscribed bond auction. The bearish action in Treasuries has given an excuse to take profits. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels of the week.
*Stocks: Wall Street slipped and closed with a -0.63% drop on the US100, -0.62% on the US500, and -0.51% on the US30.
*UKOIL is set for a weekly gain of over 2%, while USOIL is set to climb about 1% for the week as investors keep an eye on the Middle Eastern exports due to the Gaza crisis. USOIL up to $83.70.

Today: ECB President Lagarde, FOMC Member Harker & BOE Gov Bailey speak.

Interesting Mover: US500 (-0.62%) reversed in the upper part of the trend channel, touching both the 50- and the 100- DMA, which have bearishly crossed, indicating a return to 4100 lows.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 16th October 2023.

Market Update – October 16 – Stocks Sideways, Bonds Drift & Middle East in Focus.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets sold off across Asia, with the JPN225 underperforming and losing more than -2%. US futures are higher, as are European futures, as markets watch efforts to prevent a further escalation and widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Asian markets were still weighed down by heightened risk aversion, but European and US markets show signs of stabilisation. Treasury yields have backed up 5.8 bp to 4.67% and the 10-year Bund yield jumped 2.6 bp, after JGB rates climbed 1.2 bp as haven flows receded. Eurozone spreads are narrowing.

*USDIndex has declined to 106.54 but is currently on a pull back to 106.20. The Kiwi rose 0.71% to 0.5926.
*The ECB is expected to keep rates steady through the first half of 2024. According to the latest Bloomberg survey, the central bank won’t start cutting rates until the second half of next year, with the first cut seen in September, followed by another in October. Compared to the previous survey respondents have pushed out rate cut expectations, which ties in with recent ECB comments suggesting that the outlook may not become clearer until March.

*Stocks: The UK100 added 0.1%, FRA40 and GER40 both lost 0.1%. US500 and those tracking the tech-heavy US100 both advanced 0.2% ahead of the New York open. Tech stocks led declines in Europe’s Stoxx 600 index after Bloomberg reported that the US is considering further restrictions to curb China’s access to advanced semiconductors. Polish stocks jumped the most since May 2022 and the zloty rallied as a bloc of pro-European opposition parties appeared on track to unseat the nationalist government.
*USOIL steadied within $85.60- $86.75, as the US ratchets up efforts to prevent the crisis from becoming a full-blown, regional conflagration.
*Gold corrected to 1908 (PP), after it climbed 3.17% to $1990, the highest since mid-September as implied Fed funds futures repriced for about a 30% risk of another hike, after spiking briefly to 50/50 after hotter CPI.

Interesting Mover: BTCUSD (+2.11%) jumped to 27957, on USD pullback. Next resistance is at October’s upper swings, 28100 and 28500.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 17th October 2023.

Market Update – October 17 – Could Conflict be Contained?

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The focus remained on the Middle East and the Israel-Hamas war. Attempts to contain the hostilities and prevent the conflict from escalating throughout the region provided some support for risk appetite to start the week. The VIX slipped to 17.45 after surging to 19.45 to end last week. Fed’s Harker says Fed should not be considering more rate increases. Expectations for more good earnings results also boosted Wall Street, as did some softening in the US Dollar, even as Treasury yields climbed.

New Zealand inflation slowed more than economists expected in Q3, adding to signs that the RBNZ has come to the end of its tightening cycle. The annual inflation rate fell to 5.6%, a 2-year low, from 6% in the second quarter, Statistics New Zealand said Tuesday in Wellington.

*Reduced demand for haven assets – Oil & Treasuries fall as efforts to ease conflict intensify with Biden’s visit in Israel. President Joe Biden will travel to Israel tomorrow, in a visit designed to signal US solidarity with its closest Middle East ally and help prevent the conflict from engulfing the region.
*Final Hours for Country Garden as it is on the brink of a possible offshore default. This could highlight the depth of the confidence crisis gripping the sector.
*USDIndex dipped to 105.95 and GBPUSD failed to cross 1.2200.
*Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson: A rally in the USA500 in the fourth quarter of 2023 “is more likely than not”.
*Stocks: Boosted by Fed Harker dovish comments, the AI euphoria and expectations that the FED will not raise interest rates further and speculation of a good earnings season.
*USOIL reversed to $85 and Gold dropped back to $1912 on the back of heightened risk aversion against the background of escalating tensions in the Middle East.
*vBTCUSD settled at 28200. A brief 10% surge in Bitcoin yesterday gave traders a glimpse into the possible impact of a looming the US SEC decision on whether to allow exchange-traded funds investing directly in the token.

*Today: Earnings reports from Goldman Sachs & Bank of America. US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI.

Interesting Mover: GBPAUD (-0.56%) broke 1.9150, which coincides with breakout of ascending triangle and May-June Resistance. This could be a possible Head and Shoulder formation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 18th October 2023.

Market Update – October 18 – Data Fuels Higher-for-Longer Bets.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian equities followed US stocks lower after strong retail data. Treasury yields continued to shoot higher, reaching new cycle peaks. Data revived fear of an even higher Fed rate stance for an even longer period of time. Implied Fed funds futures climbed and priced in a 53% chance for a hike by the end of January. However, the market still shows only a small, less than 20% chance, for a move on November 1 since many policymakers have advocated a wait-and-see stance for now. China’s economy grew 4.9% in the third quarter. A largely positive report that confirms that China’s economy has bottomed out, even if the recovery may not be quite as strong as some had hoped.

UK inflation was higher than anticipated, against expectations for a slight deceleration in the annual rate. Core inflation decelerated to 6.1% y/y, the lowest rate since January, but still a tad higher than markets had expected.

*USDIndex has nudged down to 105.75 from a session high of 106.32.
*Stocks: NVIDIA closed at -4.68%, as the US is restricting the sale of chips that Nvidia designed specifically for the Chinese market, part of sweeping new updates to export curbs. Asian semiconductor stocks declined.
*USOIL broke $87 on renewed concerns in Middle East conflict.
*Gold rises to 4-week high, at 1942.70, as Israel-Hamas conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets. Israel’s military has bombarded Gaza with air strikes in anticipation of a widely expected ground invasion against Hamas.
*Today: US Building Permits & FOMC Waller & Harker Speeches.

Interesting Mover: UK100 retests the neckline of a possible inverse head and shoulder formation, at 7715-7740. A breakout could turn attention to the 7800 area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 19th October 2023.

Market Update – October 19 – Stock markets pressured, as bond yields rise.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Stock markets have remained underwater through the Asian part of the session, and European as well as US futures are in the red, as markets eye developments in the Middle East. The Israel-Hamas war continued to shake the markets. The explosion at a Gaza hospital on Tuesday, and the failure of diplomatic efforts to bring all sides together for negotiations, added to the increasingly tense tone and the threat of a widening in the conflict.

Treasury yields have backed up to 4.958% and the 10-year Bund yield is eyeing the 3% mark, as oil prices remain at high levels. The Fed’s Williams said interest rates will have to stay at restrictive levels “for some time” and the higher for longer message, not just from the Fed, but the BoE and ECB as well, is adding to pressure on stocks and bonds.

*USDIndex has lifted to 106.6, the VIX jumped 8.4% to 19.38.
*Stocks: Wall Street was in decline from the open and tumbled sharply into the close. Poor earnings and/or guidance added to the selling. The US100 closed with a -1.62% loss, while the US500 was -1.34% lower, and the US30 off -0.98%. In spite of the risk-off flows, Treasuries failed to benefit due to worries over the strength in the economy keeping inflation elevated. There are also fiscal policy concerns with the massive, and increasing, deficit and debt.
*USOIL prices are off highs, after the US suspended some sanctions on Venezuelan output, but the front end WTI contract is still at $86.80 per barrel, Brent over $91 per barrel.
*Gold rose 1.38% to $1963, as escalating tensions in the Middle East have boosted haven flows today and the precious metal benefited, while Treasuries and EGBs pared losses.
*Today: Fed Powell speech, US Jobless Claims and Philly Fed.

Interesting Mover: EURAUD (+0.60%) breaking downchannel and inverse head and shoulder formation at 1.6650, indicating a potential return to 1.69 highs.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 23rd October 2023.

Market Update – October 23 – A suspiciously calm day.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Asian markets sold off after a weaker close on Wall Street on Friday. Mainland China bourses underperformed as investors remain dissatisfied with official support measures and the lack of further rate cuts. Futures are under pressure across Europe and the US, amid signs that war jitters are easing as investors watch diplomatic efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas conflict. The 10-year Treasury yield has backed up 5.1 bp to 4.97%, the German 10-year rate is up 2.9 bp and the 10-year JGB yield jumped 2.6 bp. Oil and gold declined this morning driven by concerns regarding the sustained period of elevated interest rates and tensions in the Middle East.

*USDIndex turns below 106, EURUSD extends to 1.0593. The VIX climbed to the highest since March and the banking stresses.
*Stocks: China’s tech gauge drifts to record lows since its inception more than three years ago, worn down by concerns over higher US rates’ impact on global liquidity and a weak export outlook. The US100 plunged -1.53% to 12,983, below 13k for the first time since May. The US30 was off -0.86%. A flight to quality boosted demand for Treasuries, especially after the dovish reading on Chair Powell’s comments.
*Earnings season ramps up this week, with a slew of big tech titans slated to report, i.e. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft.
*USOIL corrected to $86.80 per barrel and Gold recovered to $1981 as risk aversion recedes for now.
*BTCUSD saw its biggest weekly gain since June. Currently at 30540.

Interesting Mover: US500 (-1.53%) to 4236, breaking below the 200-day moving average to add to the sour tone, with immediate support levels at 4200 and 4130.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 24th October 2023.

Market Update – October 24.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The sell off in Treasuries abated in the later part of Monday as low prices attracted buyers. Stock markets are also looking somewhat more stable and most Chinese stock gauges improved after the country’s sovereign wealth fund bought exchange traded funds to boost prices. Stock futures are higher across Europe and the US, although the UK100 is struggling. Early data releases in Europe were far from stellar, with German consumer confidence falling again, Eurozone Composite PMI falling to a 35 month low and jobless claims rising in the UK. Bonds have continued to find buyers and the 10-year Treasury yield has corrected a further -5.0 bp to 4.80%, while the 10-year Bund yield is down -5.3 bp at 2.82%, after the 10-year JGB corrected -2.5 bp.

*USDIndex found some ground at 105.46, GBPUSD extended to 1.2287 well above PP and 1.22 lows.
*RBA Governor Michele Bullock: risks inflation would prove more stubborn than expected and that interest rates might have to rise further to bring it to heel.
*Stocks: Chinese stock gauges improved after the country’s sovereign wealth fund bought exchange traded funds to boost prices. Stock futures are slightly higher across Europe and the US, although the UK100 is struggling. The US500 remains though below the 200-day moving average.
*Oil & Gold face some near term selling pressure, as the subsequent drop in rates provide some support for Equities while the USDIndex slumped. The 5% yield level on the 10-year, the first time with that handle since 2007, helped stop the bleeding in the bond market.

Interesting Mover: BTCUSD 12% higher breaching April 2022 highs and 35K. Crypto linked stocks followed as well, as speculation about the possibility of a bitcoin ETF approval drove enthusiasm.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 27th November 2023.

Month-end cautious approach.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A wait-and-see stance is all but assured at the last policy meetings of 2023 for the key central banks, the FOMC, ECB, BoE, BoC, and BoJ. Disinflationary trends in the West have afforded central bankers the opportunity to move to the sidelines to observe. But we and they will have to monitor the data into the new year to assess the length of the “higher” stance, or to determine whether the next action will be up or down.

The US30 is trading within the “trend-zone” of regression channels and continues to form higher highs and higher lows. Therefore, the assets continue to formally trade within a bullish trend. If the instrument breaks above $35,333, buy signals are likely to materialize again.

Meanwhile this week, the month’s end and the anticipation of key data releases, have generated some caution, with futures markets slightly lower globally.

Key Events of the Week: US and EU inflation data, Powell event, official China PMI & delayed Opec+ meeting. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde speaks at the EU Parliament later today.

*PBOC announced it would encourage financial institutions to support private companies, including tolerance for non-performing loans.
*Global stocks on 4-week rally: US500 futures eased 0.2% & US100 lost 0.4%. The US500 rallied for 4 weeks straight and is up 8.7% on the month so far, which would be its best performance since mid-2022.
*Approximately 55% of the S&P 500’s component shares are trading above their 200-DMA the highest share in nearly two months, according to LPL Financial.
*Asian shares slipped today, ahead of potentially market-moving inflation data from the US & EU and the OPEC+ meeting,prompting them to sell stocks to lock in profits. JPN225 fell 0.53% to close at 33,447.67. CSI300 fell another 0.8% and have missed out on all the global cheer with the market down 1.8% in November so far.
*Reuters: Morgan Stanley bought $300 million worth of protection against losses on some of its loans from Blackstone Group and other investors. The deal is one of several such credit risk transfer transactions that US banks are considering in the aftermath of a March crisis in the sector and as regulators look to increase capital they have to hold, bankers, lawyers and investors said.
*Treasury yields are slightly higher, but that hasn’t helped the US Dollar.
*USDIndex is at 2-month low, i.e. 103.30, EURUSD is up at 1.0952, not far from 4-month high of 1.0965 – Markets priced in 80 basis points of US easing next year, and around 82 basis points for the ECB.
*USDJPY pulled back to 148.77 due to the soft Dollar against a broadly firmer Yen.
*USOIL under pressure at $75 area & UKOIL fell to $80 ahead of Thursday’s meeting, as uncertainty regarding Opec outlook and failure to easy market worries of a deeper supply weighs on the energy markets.
*Reports suggest African oil producers are seeking higher caps for 2024, while Saudi Arabia may extend its additional 1 million bpd voluntary production cut, which is due to expire at the end of December.
*Key Mover: Gold climbs to 6-month high in choppy trade, hit $2,017.82. Spot gold may extend gains into $2,027-$2,030.

Medium-term technical analysis leans more towards a decline in the Euro against the Pound. However, the price will need to decline below 0.87167, for short-term signals to point towards an imminent decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 28th November 2023.

Market Recap: Bonds up; Stocks weaker; DXY set for the worst month in a year.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market Trends:

*Asian stocks fell in response to declines in US and European markets, triggered by hawkish signals from central banks on interest rates.
*Bonds extended gains amid growing conviction that central banks in Europe and the US have concluded rate hikes, with expectations of potential rate cuts next year.
*The US Dollar hovered near three-month lows as investors believed the Federal Reserve had completed its rate-hike cycle, with attention focused on an upcoming crucial inflation report.

Central Bank Developments:

*ECB President Lagarde noted that the central bank’s efforts to control price growth are ongoing, citing strong wage growth and an uncertain outlook despite easing inflation pressures in the eurozone.
*CME’s FedWatch indicated a 95% likelihood that the US central bank will maintain unchanged interest rates next month, but there is a growing possibility of a rate cut gaining traction in mid-2024.

Global Economic Indicators:

*Australia experienced an unexpected decline in retail sales for October, with consumers cutting spending on everything except food.
*Germany saw a slight improvement in consumer sentiment as the Christmas month approached, but it remained at a very low level, attributed to high inflation, indicating no signs of a sustainable recovery in Europe’s largest economy.

Financial Markets Performance:

*Weaker-than-expected home sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index weighed on Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.396%.
*JPN225 closed 0.12% lower at 33,408.39, despite being up 8% for the month, failing to surpass its highest closing level in three decades reached on July 3 in recent attempts.
*JPY gained momentum as the USDIndex hit a three-month low on weaker-than-expected data, while EURUSD dipped to 1.0937, breaching the bottom of a one-week channel with the next support at 1.0925.
*AUD rose to 0.6630, reaching a four-month high, while NZD touched a seven-week high of 0.6114.
*USOIL eased 0.13% to $74.74, and UKOIL dropped below $80 as oil prices fluctuated ahead of an OPEC+ meeting later in the week.
*Gold reached $2,013.80, hitting a fresh six-month peak of $2,017.89 earlier in the session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 29th November 2023.

Market Recap: Dollar slumped; Gold & Oil supported on rising Fed rate cut bets.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*US consumer confidence improved better than expected, but it follows big downward revisions to October. The consumer confidence rise joins a Michigan sentiment decline to a 6-month low. All the surveys face headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and fears about developments in the Middle East.
*Fed’s Waller (the most hawkish Fed) & Goolsbee are “increasingly confident” that policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. BUT Fed Governor Bowman reiterated she favors more rate hikes if the progress on inflation stalls.
*The RBNZ warned this morning that further policy tightening might be needed if price pressures did not ease.
*German import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% m/m in October. However, annual import price inflation seems to have bottomed out in August and the trend of ever deeper deflation has been reversed now.

Market Trends

*Fed funds futures rallied on the dovish read. Implied rates popped to suggest about a 70% chance for a rate cut as soon as the May 1 policy meeting, versus about a 55% risk a week ago. However, a significant downturn in growth could spark the more aggressive easing posture as the market is reflecting.
*Treasury bulls took less than hawkish Fedspeak and ran with it. Short term bond yields dropped sharply, to the lowest since July and August.
*Stocks in Asia and US are fractionally higher after a mixed trade most of the session, as Treasury yields and USD hit multi-month lows. JPN225 fell at 33,321 as investors continue their pause in buying.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The US Dollar bears chased the Buck lower. USDIndex fell to 102.36, the weakest since August. – Its worst monthly performance in a year!
*EURUSD broke 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, breaching 1.1016. Cable is at 1.2730.
*USDZAR extended to 18.51 lows, JPY jumped to its strongest point since mid-September at 146.66. The NZD surged more than 1% to July’s high of 0.6207.
*USOIL & Gold climbed to $77 from $74 lows, and to $2051.93 per ounce, the highest since May, respectively. The weaker US Dollar, global uncertainties, and rising Fed rate cut bets supported Gold and Oil.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 30th November 2023.

Market Recap: Stocks loosing their steam; Oil rallies ahead of OPEC+.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The US GDP report implied a Q3 productivity growth boost to a robust 5.1% from 4.7%, after an unrevised 3.6% Q2 clip. There was a Q3 growth rate trimming for the hours-worked index to 1.0% from 1.1% due to weakness in the hours-worked data in the last employment report.
*Fed rate cut bets deepened thanks to the lack of pushback from most Fed officials, and expectations for this pivot continued to drive the markets. There was no impact from the 5.2% GDP print.
*China’s manufacturing sector contracting for a 2nd consecutive month in November and performing worse than forecast indicates weakening momentum despite increasing government efforts to boost growth.
*EU: French inflation dropped sharply & German retail sales bounced in October. It was the first real improvement since May, which is likely also related to the moderation in inflation.

Market Trends

*Treasury yields richened further, and especially at the front end. Fed funds futures brought forward an easing in the policy rate to May from June. The curve dis-inverted to -38 bps on the bull steepener.
*Bonds are set to post the best month ever. Concurrently, the rate cut frenzy has boosted EGBs too, sending the global index to its best since 2008 the financial crisis.
*Stocks traded cautiously and lost steam into the close, as several Big Tech companies offset gains. The US30 gained 0.04%, while the US100 dropped -0.16%, with the US500 off -0.09%. Asian stocks were mixed as well, with CSI300 adding 0.5%.
*Meta fell 2%, Alphabet gave up 1.6% and Microsoft dropped 1%. General Motors surged 9.4% after the company announced a big stock buyback.
*The VIX was up 2.2% to 12.97, recovering from the 12.46 low from last week that had not been challenged since January 2020.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The US Dollar steadied at 102.80, with a 102 handle for a 3rd straight day. It’s slumped from the October 3 peak of 107.00.
*EURUSD reversed below 61.8% Fib level on July-September downleg, at 1.0945. It remains well above 1.09.
*USDJPY retests a potential break of its 146.70 low for a 2nd day in a row, USDCAD extends below 1.36 confirming an ascending head and shoulders formation in the daily chart.
*Gold edged up 0.16% to $2044.18 per ounce.
*USOIL climbed 2% to $78.79 per barrel ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. The delayed meeting of the expanded OPEC+ group will be held online.
*Bitcoin still hovering near the $38,000-mark.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 1st December 2023.

Market Recap: A November to remember!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

A November to remember. The markets were all over the place to end the month. While the FOMC is still the focal point, repositioning after some big moves on the month and positioning into year-end were the main drivers. The FOMC has reached peak rates, according to Fed funds futures, and rate cuts are the next action, now fully priced for May.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*PCE: Data has been mixed but generally reflect progress on the FOMC’s inflation goal and has convinced markets that rate cuts are underway — core PCE fell to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y previously, but is still well above the 2% target. US pending home sales declined.
*OPEC+ announced an additional 1 mln barrels in cuts. The cuts will be announced individually by members, according to delegates. The Saudi Arabia is expected to extend its down voluntary cut of 1 million barrels.

Market Trends

*Best month in 40 years! Treasuries rallied on FOMC expectations. But profit taking ahead of comments from Chair Powell today unwound some of the froth. The curve steepened to -36 bps versus -50 bps Monday.
*Stocks: Wall Street befittingly finished mixed. The US30 rallied 8.9% with the US100 up 10.7%. For the month the US30 was up 8.8%, its second best November since 1980, according to Bloomberg.
*For the S&P, 10 of the 11 sectors are higher on the month.
*Asia Stock markets were under pressure overnight, with the Hang Seng underperforming, despite a better than expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI that managed to lift above the 50 point no change mark again.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex finished at 103.40 recovering from the slide to the 102.36 the prior two days after weaker than expected European and Chinese data.
*EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating a possible reversal of the 2-month rally, however 1.0830-1.0860 remains the key support area.
*USDJPY rebounds to 148.30, USDCAD dips further into 1-year triangle with immediate support at 1.35, while GBPUSD settles above 1.26 despite US Dollar appreciation.
*Gold slipped about -0.4% to the $2036 area on the rise in yields and some fading of haven trades.
*USOIL slumped 2.9% to $75.59 after spiking 2.2% to $79.60 after OPEC+ announced a further production cut.
*Key Mover: EURCHF down by 1.26%. Next Support levels: 0.95, 0.9440 and 0.9375.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 4th December 2023.

Market Recap: Cryptos Rise; Oil & Gold Down; Stocks Steady.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The holidays got a little cheerier amid signs that the major central banks have come to the end of their aggressive tightening postures. Despite protestations from policymakers to the contrary, the markets are now building in the start of rate cuts in 1H 2024. Those hopes underpinned one of the best November’s on record for bonds and stocks, and helped boost gold to a new record high!

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*The market sentiment remains uncertain, as Chair Powell did not offer much pushback to expectations that rate cuts are the next move on the agenda or that there was a massive easing in financial conditions in November.
*The US November payrolls report on Friday is crucial for market expectations of rate cuts.
*Analysts anticipate a soft landing for the US economy, with positive but below-potential growth in the next six quarters.
*BofA notes a positive outlook for emerging markets, which are experiencing historically positive returns after the last Fed hike.

Market Trends

*Fed Chair Powell reminded investors the bank is not in a hurry to cut rates and yields are off Friday’s lows.
*Treasuries and Gold declined from session highs. Yields rose across various tenors in Treasuries, with the 10-year trading around 4.23%.
*Asian shares showed mixed results, with gains in Australian and Korean stocks, while Japanese equities fell. JPN225 closed down 0.6% at 33,231.27 after earlier sliding as much as 1.22%. European and US stock futures remained stable.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex nudged higher with Treasury yields and is at 103.43.
*EURUSD broke below 1.09, indicating a possible reversal of the 2-month rally, however 1.0820-1.0865 remains the key support area.
*USDJPY dipped to 146.22, reaching a nearly 3-month high against the US Dollar. Currently though, it has reverted some gains, as speculation about an eventual unwinding of the Bank of Japan’s policies added pressure on the Yen.
*Gold down from all-time highs above $2,100, benefiting from lower yields.
*Oil prices faced challenges due to doubts about OPEC+ maintaining output cuts, high US production, and increasing rig counts. UKOIL eased to $78.37 a barrel, while USOIL fell to $73.63. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added to market considerations.
*Bitcoin surpassed $41,000, reaching its highest level since April 2022. Bitcoin’s rebound continued, reaching $41,746, with expectations of interest-rate cuts and potential ETF approvals. Smaller tokens like Ether and Dogecoin also experienced gains.
*Key Mover: EURJPY down by 1.92%. Next Support levels: 159 and 158.50.

This week:

*Investors are closely watching economic indicators, including Australian growth, Chinese inflation, and US non-farm payrolls data.
*The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain a hawkish stance.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 5th December 2023.

Market Recap: Fears of overbought condition prevail!

Trading Leveraged Products is risky

The markets giveth and the market taketh away. Red proliferated the screens as profit taking unwound some of Friday’s aggressive rallies. There were no real catalysts to the move, just fears that markets were overbought and rate cut bets too optimistic.

Economic Indicators & Central Banks:

*RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.35% at the final meeting of the year. The board, flagged, however, that progress in bringing inflation back to target was slower than anticipated. They noted uncertainty over the global outlook due to the Chinese economy and overseas conflicts.
*Aussie: Markets are still pricing in some risk of further tightening from the RBA, and the inflation numbers for the last quarter of the year will likely be decisive for the February 6 meeting.
*China: Services PMI expanded at a quicker pace in November, which was the highest in three months, as demand strengthened in Asia’s largest economy.

Market Trends

*Treasury yields closed just off session highs.
*Asia stock markets sold off, following on from a weaker close on Wall Street. China bourses underperformed, despite a stronger Services PMI.
*Stocks: Wall Street was underwater from the get-go and closed with modest declines. The US100 slumped -0.84% on weakness in big tech, including Meta on news CEO Zuckerberg was selling shares. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia also declined. Alaska Air dropped after announcing its acquisition of Hawaiian Air. US500 was off -0.54% and the US30 was down -0.11%.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex was one of the few gainers on the day, rebounding to 103.642 (intraday peak of 103.852) following Friday’s drop to 103.268.
*EURUSD declined to 1.08, indicating apotential retest of 1.0760, as the buck is firmer versus all its G10 peers as rate cut speculation is keeping a lid on EUR and GBP.
*USDJPY steady above 146.50.
*Gold has corrected somewhat as the US Dollar found a footing and Treasury yields lifted. It is currently steady at $2030 – $2040 area.
*Oil remained under pressure as USOIL is currently trading below $74 as markets remain distinctly unimpressed by the voluntary output cuts announced by OPEC+. With growth data suggesting subdued demand that is leaving fears of a sizeable supply overhang through 2024 on the table.
*Bitcoin extended higher and breached $42,337 for the first time since early 2022 (roughly 153% higher this year).
*Key Mover: Copper (-0.95%), with next Support at 3.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.