Forex Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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NZD/USD Rate Increases after the Decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
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This morning the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.5%:

→ the decision to keep the interest rate at this high level is made for the sixth time in a row;

→ the RBNZ said rates should remain high for some time to ensure inflation is contained;

→ this decision was expected - all 25 economists in the Bloomberg survey predicted it.

However, New Zealand's economy is in recession, with GDP contracting in four of the last five quarters — prompting market participants to speculate that the central bank will begin cutting rates in the second half of this year.

The market reaction was a slight strengthening of the New Zealand dollar. Thus, the NZD/USD rate today rose to its April high.

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The US Dollar Rose Sharply after Inflation Data. When Is Correction Possible?
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For the second time this year, the US consumer price index turned out to be higher than experts predicted. Thus, in February the figure increased from 3.1% to 3.2%. In March, the consumer price index, exceeding the expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, was at 3.5%. The continued rise in inflation, coupled with a strong labor market, contributed to:

Fed representatives are extremely cautious regarding the future direction of monetary policy;
market participants are lowering expectations of how many quarters of a percent the rate could be cut this year.
As a result of the current situation, European currencies returned to recent lows, and the USD/JPY pair updated its 2022 high.

USD/JPY
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US dollar buyers in the USD/JPY pair managed to move above the important support level of 152.00. The price on the USD/JPY chart rose to 153.20, but further pricing of the pair will depend on the actions of the Japanese regulator. Bank of Japan officials have repeatedly stated that near 152.00 they may resort to foreign exchange interventions to support the national currency. With the intervention of the central bank, the pair may correct to the nearest support levels at 152.00-150.00. At the same time, we cannot exclude continued exponential growth in the direction of 155.00-154.00.

Important for USD/JPY pricing will be today's news on the US producer price index for March and weekly data on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits.

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Inflation Data Sharply Strengthens the US Dollar
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Data on consumer prices and core inflation published yesterday exceeded expectations. According to ForexFactory:

→ Core CPI in monthly terms: actual = 0.4%, expected = 0.3%, a month ago = 0.4%;
→ CPI in annual terms: actual = 3.5%, forecast was = 3.4%, previous value = 3.2% with a target value of 2%.

As a result of the publication of news, market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in June have sharply increased. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, before the publication of news about inflation, the probability of this was = 42.6% (that is, the majority believed that there would be a rate cut), then after the publication the probability = 83.0%. This is a dramatic change in sentiment.

Speaking to Bloomberg, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said cutting rates in June would be a dangerous and egregious mistake, adding: "You have to take seriously the possibility that the next rate move will be upwards rather than downward." .

The reaction of financial markets was the strengthening of the US dollar in the context of tight monetary policy, the effect of which will last longer:
→ USD has risen in price in currency pairs — for example, USD/CHF has risen to its maximum in six months;
→ Bitcoin fell in price, but this morning the main cryptocurrency has already recovered from yesterday’s fall;
→ gold tested support at 2,320.

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USD/JPY Rises to Highest Since 1990
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This morning the USD/JPY rate is around 153.20 yen per US dollar, which was facilitated by a sharp strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of news about inflation in the United States. Thus, the yen weakened to levels last seen in mid-1990.

At the same time, an important event occurred — a bullish breakdown of the level of 152 yen per US dollar. This level is special due to the fact that in 2022, the weakening of the exchange rate to 152 yen per US dollar forced the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance to intervene three times, as Reuters writes, to support the yen.

In 2023, it also acted as a barrier to growth. It also held back the market during March 2024 and early April.

But yesterday the level of 152 yen per US dollar did not survive.

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Hits New High While Crude Oil Price Consolidates
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Gold price surged toward the $2,400 zone and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is attempting a fresh increase above the $85.00 zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

  • Gold price started a strong increase above the $2,350 zone against the US Dollar.
  • It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,345 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  • Crude oil is consolidating above the $84.00 support.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $85.60 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near the $2,300 zone. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a strong increase above $2,320.

It broke a key bearish trend line with resistance at $2,345. The bulls even pushed the price above the $2,350 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded to a new all-time high at $2,395.

The price is now consolidating gains near the $2,385 zone and the RSI corrected from 80. Initial support on the downside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,319 swing low to the $2,395 high at $2,378.

The first major support is near the $2,350 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $2,319 swing low to the $2,395 high.

If there is a downside break below the $2,350 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $2,325 support.

Immediate resistance is near the $2,395 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,400 level. An upside break above the $2,400 resistance could send Gold price toward $2,420. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $2,440 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 

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Analysis: EUR/USD Close to Year’s Low after ECB Decision
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As predicted by analysts, the European Central Bank did not change the interest rate yesterday, keeping it at = 4.50%. This morning the EUR/USD rate is near the psychological level of 1.0700, which approximately corresponds to the 2024 low.

The key driver of the euro's decline is the prospect that the ECB will take the path of easing monetary policy earlier than the Fed:
→ ECB President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that the decision “depends on the data, not on the Fed.”
→ As reported by Reuters, Max Stainton, senior global macro strategist at Fidelity International, believes that “the ECB will be the first central bank to start cutting rates this year.”

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S&P 500 Price Consolidates ahead of Earnings Season
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On April 4, we wrote that the S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness around the 5,250 level. How is the situation on the stock market developing by today, which is the start of the reporting season for the first quarter?

The S&P 500 fell sharply on Wednesday amid higher-than-expected inflation data.

But the S&P 500 rose yesterday after data showed producer prices rose only slightly in March.

According to Forexfactory:

→ Producer Price Index (PPI) in monthly terms: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, a month ago = 0.6%;

→ Core PPI in monthly terms: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.2%, a month ago = 0.3%.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 

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Watch FXOpen's 8 - 12 April Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: FTSE, NZD/USD, USD, USD/JPY


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • FTSE 100's Holy Grail of 8,000 Continues to Be a Pipe Dream
  • NZD/USD Rate Increases after the Decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
  • Inflation Data Sharply Strengthens the US Dollar
  • USD/JPY Rises to Highest Since 1990

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Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.


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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Brent Oil Price Did Not Rise Despite Iran's Attack on Israel
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As you know, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel over the weekend. This could greatly increase the price of Brent oil, given that Iran is one of the top 10 oil producing countries, and the fact of the strike could provoke further escalation in the region.

However, at the beginning of the trading week, the price of Brent oil is below the levels at which they were at the end of last week. How so?

It is acceptable to assume the impact that the price reflects market risks and the expectations of its participants:
→ As the media wrote last week, the blow was expected after Israel’s attack on the Iranian mission.
→ The risk of escalation is not as high as it could be. According to the Washington Post, Biden advises Netanyahu to “slow down” after the Iranian attack. Administration officials said the United States would not join in any response to Tehran's attack and suggested Israel avoid escalation.

How might the situation develop further on the oil market?

From the point of view of technical analysis of the price of Brent oil, as we wrote on April 4, the upper limit of the blue channel is around USD 92 per barrel of Brent.

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Hong Kong Stocks Become Top Risers After Wild Ride Subsides
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Hong Kong enjoyed a sterling reputation for an entire century as a highly polished, utterly stable mantlepiece upon which global corporations could comfortably sit and where an international talent base could reside in fabulous surroundings and approach European, American, African and Asian markets with aplomb.

Its financial markets economy has been recognized as one of the most developed in the world to the extent that despite its tiny size, it has its own reserve currency, which is a bastion of fiscal might on the world stage.

These days, however, things are somewhat different as the independent nature of Hong Kong is now a fading memory, and its return to governance under the auspices of mainland China is now widely accepted.

Having conceded its position as the world's meeting place to other global cities such as Singapore and Dubai, Hong Kong has gone through a sea change over recent years, which is reflected in its stock market performance.

At the beginning of 2024, it had become clear that several decades of wealth generation among Hong Kong-based businesses had been eroded since the realm of power was handed back to China, with the stock market being valued at a lower point than when Hong Kong's British era ended in 1997 at the expiry of the lease at which point Hong Kong became a Special Administrative Region of China.

That is quite some depreciation. Since the beginning of this year, however, swathes of volatility have been clearly apparent in Hong Kong's Hang Seng 50 Index.

Going back over the years, performance has been incredibly volatile, to say the least. Back in 2022, the variations were simply incredible. On January 6 that year, the Hang Seng 50 index was at 21869.8 points according to FXOpen pricing. However, this plunged dramatically to 14,849 just four days later on January 10.

A similar situation took place at the beginning of last year; however, by January 2024, stock prices in Hong Kong were not only at a very low point but also stagnant.

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XAU/USD Gold Price Reaches an Important Resistance Zone
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The XAU/USD gold chart today indicates that the historical record price of the metal is above USD 2,400 per ounce.

In addition to fears of a new round of inflation due to rising commodity prices, geopolitical tensions are seen as the most important reason for the growth. At the moment, there are both active military conflicts on the planet (Ukraine, Israel-Iran), and there is a threat of creating new ones (Taiwan, for example). The US national debt and upcoming elections may also act as a destabilizing factor.

Therefore, gold acts as a traditional safe-haven asset. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, gold is in an “unshakable bull market”, so they raised their gold price forecast from USD 2,300 to USD 2,700.

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Nosedives While USD/JPY Extend Rally
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EUR/USD started another decline and traded below 1.0700. USD/JPY surged and broke the 154.00 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
  • The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0695 support zone.
  • There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0630 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  • USD/JPY climbed higher above the 153.40 and 154.25 levels.
  • There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 154.25 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis
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On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0870 resistance zone. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.0755 support zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The pair even declined below 1.0695 and tested the 1.0600 zone. A low was formed near 1.0601 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.0630.

On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0755 swing high to the 1.0601 low at 1.0635. The next key resistance is near the 1.0665 level.

The main resistance is 1.0695 or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0755 swing high to the 1.0601 low. A clear move above the 1.0695 level could send the pair toward the 1.0755 resistance.

An upside break above 1.0755 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0870. If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0600.

The next key support is at 1.0580. If there is a downside break below 1.0580, the pair could drop toward 1.0565. The next support is near 1.0550, below which the pair could start a major decline.

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USD/JPY Analysis: Prospect of a Breakout of the Level of 155 Yen per Dollar
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The USD/JPY rate has consistently reached new highs since 1990, approaching the psychological level of 155 yen per US dollar. The Japanese currency has already fallen about 9% against the dollar this year.

This is supported by Jerome Powell, who suggested yesterday that US interest rates are likely to remain high for longer. He refused to give any guidance on when interest rates might be cut, greatly dimming investors' hopes for significant easing this year.

Market participants now expect a 40 basis point rate cut in 2024, significantly lower than the 160 basis point easing they were counting on at the start of the year, according to FedWatch.

At the same time, traders are focused on whether Japanese monetary authorities will intervene to support the currency as it deteriorates rapidly. Officials have stepped up warnings of possible intervention, although analysts also say fighting the dollar's strong bullish trend will be difficult and costly. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday he was closely monitoring the yen's exchange rate against the US dollar today and would take "strengthened response measures if necessary."

“Today, intervention can only help slow or contain the pace of depreciation, but cannot reverse the trend,” Kenneth Broux, head of exchange rate research at Societe Generale, told Reuters. Japan last intervened in the foreign exchange market in 2022, spending an estimated USD 60 billion to defend the yen.

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UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
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Yesterday, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the CPI stood at 3.2% in March. According to ForexFactory, analysts expected 3.1%, and a month ago the index was 3.4%.

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “Once again, food prices were the main reason for the fall, with prices rising by less than we saw a year ago. Similarly to last month, we saw a partial offset from rising fuel prices.”

Thus, actual inflation in the UK fell to its lowest level in two and a half years. According to Yahoo Finance, this weakening of inflation could influence the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates from the current level of 5.25% in June.

In anticipation of an easing of monetary policy, the values of the UK stock index UK100 increased yesterday. Today it is above the 7,900 level.

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Turn Red
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AUD/USD declined below the 0.6500 and 0.6455 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might struggle to recover above 0.5950.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

  • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6500 level against the US Dollar.
  • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  • NZD/USD declined steadily from the 0.6000 resistance zone.
  • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5890 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

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On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6540 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6500 support against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6455 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6400. A low was formed at 0.6362 and the pair is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 0.6410 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.6410 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6456 swing high to the 0.6362 low.

The next major resistance is near 0.6455, above which the price could rise toward 0.6540. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6600. A close above the 0.6600 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6680.

On the downside, initial support is near the 0.6360 zone. The next support sits at 0.6340. If there is a downside break below 0.6340, the pair could extend its decline. The next support could be 0.6300. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6265 support.

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NFLX Stock Price Falls Despite Subscriber Growth
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Yesterday, after the close of the main trading session on the stock market, Netflix reported to investors for the 1st quarter of 2024.

The report turned out better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 5.28, forecast = USD 4.52;
→ gross income: actual = USD 9.40 billion, forecast = USD 9.27.
→ The number of subscribers increased by 9.3 million (expected +4.8 million).

However, NFLX's pre-market share price today is hovering around USD 580, about 6% below yesterday's closing price.

Negativity manifested itself in:
→ disappointing forecasts for the 2nd quarter;
→ investors also did not like the decision to stop providing quarterly reports on changes in the number of subscribers next year.

If NFLX stock opens today around the USD 580 level, then it would indicate that the market has moved down to the lower boundary of the parallel channel (shown in blue).

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Commodity Currencies at Strategic Levels. What Can Affect a Breakdown Downwards?
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The decline in investor expectations regarding a change in the vector of the Fed's monetary policy contributes to the fall of not only European, but also commodity currencies. So, in recent weeks:
  • AUD/USD has lost more than 200 points and is testing the extremes of 2023 near 0.6400
  • USD/CAD is trading at three-year highs and has managed to strengthen by 300 points

What may affect the pricing of the main currency pairs on the market in the coming trading sessions:
  • Speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee (today at 17.30 GMT+3.00)
  • Publication on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes (today at 20.00 GMT+3.00)
  • Announcement on the base lending rate from the People's Bank of China (Monday at 4.15 GMT+3.00)

USD/CAD
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The USD/CAD currency pair has come close to the important range of 1.3970-1.3800, above which the price has not risen since 2020.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the possibility of a downward correction in the short term, since a dark clouds combination has been formed on the daily timeframe, the development of which could lead to a breakdown of yesterday’s low at 1.3740 and a further test of 1.3650-1.3620. If the upward movement resumes, the price may break through the recent high at 1.3840 and continue to rise in the direction of 1.3970-1.3880.

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Watch FXOpen's 15 - 19 April Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: UK100, USD, GOLD, OIL


Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

  • UK100 Share Index Rises as UK Inflation Slows
  • The Dollar is Corrected after the Comments of the Head of the Federal Reserve
  • XAU/USD Gold Price Reaches an Important Resistance Zone
  • Since the Beginning of the Week, the Price of Brent Oil Has Fallen by More than 4%

Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.


Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.



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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Bitcoin Price Bullish after Halving-2024
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On April 19, 2024, a halving occurred in the Bitcoin network, resulting in the reward for the mined block amounting to 3.125 BTC.

Historically, after the halving (which is associated with a reduction in supply), the price of Bitcoin heads to all-time highs. But, as Forbes reports, Goldman Sachs analysts warn against extrapolating the results of Bitcoin price movements after past halvings to the current moment. After all, back then, the halvings occurred during a period of loose monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, while this time the Fed is struggling with harsher-than-expected inflation.

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou are also cautious. “We do not expect Bitcoin price increases post halving as it has been already priced in,” they wrote.

However, this morning Bitcoin is trading above USD 66,000, the highest price in a week. Adding to the market's positivity are rumors that the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) in Hong Kong is going to approve spot applications for Bitcoin ETFs.

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Hong Kong-listed Chinese Insurer Goes on Rally as Western Giants Retract
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The Asia Pacific region has once again become an area of great interest to investors and traders as some remarkable patterns of volatility have begun to make their presence felt.

This morning, a few examples of Hong Kong-listed Chinese companies which have made headway are apparent as the Asia Pacific region's trading session spearheaded the beginning of the week ahead for financial markets.

One such company is China Pacific Insurance, whose Hong Kong-listed stock is available for trading as a CFD on FXOpen's TickTrader platform.

The company has made some remarkable headway over the past few weeks, culminating in a further acceleration in value toward the high point that it has reached today, placing it among the top risers across all markets globally.

At the end of last month, China Pacific Insurance stock was at a low point, trading at 13.28 HKD on March 27, however, this situation turned itself around quickly, and throughout April so far, the stock has been increasing in value, reaching 15.91 HKD according to FXOpen pricing by 8.00 am UK time this morning by which point the majority of the trading day in Hong Kong was complete.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the FXOpen INT company only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the the FXOpen INT, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
 
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