Somrat4030
Member
Feb-23, 2022, EU, US market analysis and currency trading latest forecast.
Thus far a relatively sanguine response in the FX space to the first round of sanctions on Russia. That said, in the short term, market sentiment will continue to change on a whim from headline to headline, staying agile is the prudent approach in this current environment. I remain a longer term bull on the Euro, which can also be expressed via EUR/GBP. EUR/USD continues to hold onto the 1.13 handle with the recent break below failing to inspire in much the way of a follow through. Now while this may be encouraging for Euro bulls, the current geopolitical risks suggest that the currency is not out of the woods yet. Not to mention we are also approaching month-end rebalancing, which may well see similar price action that we saw at the end of last month. So far the S&P 500 is down 4.6% MTD and as the chart below highlights, when the index reports MTD losses of at least 3%, the USD picks up in the last few days of the month, before paring the entirety of the move in the first week of the new month.
EUR/USD
Going along with that trendless US Dollar has been the mirror image in EUR/USD, and there's been a similar tightening action showing here with price action coiling deeper into compression.
There's a couple of trendlines at-play here and that goes along with existing support and resistance structure. The 1.1374 level remains relevant, and a breach there opens the door for a push up to 1409. On the support side, 1272 remains important, and tests below that open the door for longer-term support from 1187-1212.
On the other hand, The Canadian dollar was trying to strengthen against its US counterpart on Wednesday as global financial markets started off calm in Asia.
However, risk sentiment flipped on its head with investors waiting to see Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move after he sent troops into separatist regions of Ukraine.Thank You