JamesThatcher
Member
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.
May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.
May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.
See this reports history and price action here:
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.
May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.
May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.
See this reports history and price action here:
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