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RoboForex - roboforex.com: overview, news and analytics
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[QUOTE="RoboForex Team, post: 336190, member: 105160"] [B][SIZE=5]AUD/USD: Analysis of the Current Trend and Expert Forecasts for 2024[/SIZE][/B] [CENTER][img]https://blog.roboforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/02.02.2024.jpg[/img] [B]Dear Clients and Partners,[/B][/CENTER] AUD/USD is one of the key currency pairs in the international foreign exchange market. On 1 February 2024, we examined the primary factors influencing the pair’s exchange rate, analysed its price performance in 2023, and explored expert forecasts for 2024. [SIZE=5]Overview of the AUD/USD currency pair[/SIZE] AUD/USD is one of the key currency pairs in the international foreign exchange market. On 1 February 2024, we examined the primary factors influencing the pair’s exchange rate, analysed its price performance in 2023, and explored expert forecasts for 2024. Trading characteristics of the AUD/USD pair [LIST] [*]Trading hours: The pair is traded round the clock except for weekends, with the highest activity observed during the Pacific, Asian, and American trading sessions [*]Volatility: AUD/USD is characterised by moderate volatility, with average daily fluctuations ranging from 500 to 700 pips. However, during times of crises and stock market swings, volatility may increase to 1,000-2,000 pips per day for a short time [*]Spread: thanks to high liquidity and moderate volatility, the spread for AUD/USD is minimal, often less than 10 pips in popular ECN accounts [/LIST] [SIZE=5]Key factors influencing the AUD/USD quotes[/SIZE] [B]The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy[/B] The Reserve Bank of Australia has been tightening its monetary policy to combat inflation since May 2022, raising the key rate from 0.1% in April 2022 to 4.35% in November 2023. Subsequently, the regulator paused to assess the dynamics of inflation rates, keeping the indicator unchanged. In its policy, the central bank aims to reduce the inflation rate to the target range of 2-3%. The Q4 2023 consumer inflation report released on 31 January 2024 showed a decrease in the indicator to 4.1%. It is worth noting that the reading was 5.3% in Q3. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia's estimates, the inflation rate is decreasing and is projected to return to the 2-3% target in 2025. [B]The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy[/B] The US Federal Reserve is also combatting inflation by tightening monetary policy, with the regulator aiming to decrease the indicator to 2%. From the beginning of 2022 to July 2023, the interest rate has gradually risen from 0.25% to 5.5%, significantly impacting the exchange rate of the US dollar, which has strengthened markedly against many world currencies. The inflation rate is gradually decreasing thanks to monetary tightening, and high interest rates exert pressure on the US economy. Consumer inflation (CPI) was down to 3.4% in January 2024. At its latest meeting on 31 January 2024, the Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged at 5.5%, with the regulator’s officials noting that they are ready to cut the rate if inflation steadily slows down. [B]Dynamics of prices for natural resources[/B] Despite being relatively young, Australia’s economy holds a prominent position in the global rankings. The country is rich in diverse natural resources, including gold, iron ore, diamonds, minerals, uranium, and coal deposits. The export of these resources plays a pivotal role in bolstering government revenue. Therefore, an upswing in the global prices of commodities like iron ore, industrial metals, gold, silver, and coal contributes to strengthening the Australian dollar exchange rate and fuels the growth of the AUD/USD currency pair. Conversely, a decline in the prices of natural resources, often triggered by a global economic crisis, results in a decrease in the Australian dollar exchange rate and the AUD/USD quotes. It is worth noting that the AUD/USD currency pair is correlated with the price of gold. Rising gold prices usually contribute to strengthening the Australian dollar and driving up the pair’s exchange rate. In contrast, a decline in gold quotes is commonly followed by a drop in the Australian currency exchange rate and the pair’s quotes. [SIZE=5]How to Trade AUD/USD[/SIZE] [LIST] [*]Trading based on fundamental analysis. This method relies on examining significant factors such as economic statistics, expectations of central bank interest rate changes, and current trends in global stock, currency, and commodity markets. It is usually applied in the long term, where positions can be held from several weeks to a year or more [*]Trading based on technical analysis. This method relies on carefully studying and analysing the currency pair's chart. This approach employs classical technical analysis using trendlines, price patterns, support and resistance levels, proprietary methodologies, candlestick combinations, Price Action patterns, and more. Trading using technical analysis tools is generally for the medium or short-term [*]Trading based on indicator signals. This approach makes trading decisions based on signals from various technical indicators. The direction of trading, entry and exit points from positions are determined based on signals from one or several indicators. These signals can be used to automate trading with the help of special programs, such as trading advisors [/LIST] [URL="https://blog.roboforex.com/blog/2024/02/02/aud-usd-forecast/?utm_source=trendri.com&utm_medium=listing&utm_campaign=rf_en_blog&utm_contents&utm_content=externalforums+blog+text"]Read more at R Blog - RoboForex[/URL] [B]Sincerely, The RoboForex Team[/B] [/QUOTE]
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